Junkeer Classification

The Junkeer Classification is measure for The Two party preferred volatility of an Australian electorate or polling place within a Australian General Election or State General Election. By using the classification a polling place or electorate can be classified into 4 distinct categories, they are "Safe Labor"; "Risk Labor"; "Too Close to Call"; "Risk Liberal"; "Safe Liberal."

How does the Classification Work

The classification is based on a volatility score, which is determined by the following formula (Last Election Two Party Preferred Labor Vote% - 0.5) / (Average Two Party Preferred Swing in last 3 elections)

Using the score above, the classification is then completed as follows:

  • Score greater than 1 then Junkeer Classification = "Safe Labor";
  • Score greater than 0.5 but less than or equal to 1 then Junkeer Classification = "Risk Labor";
  • Score between 0.5 and -0.5 then Junkeer Classification = "Too Close to Call";
  • Score less than -0.5 but greater than or equal to -1 then Junkeer Classification = "Risk Liberal";
  • Score less than 1 then Junkeer Classification = "Safe Liberal"

The Junkeer Classification is most known for its use by Australian marketing analytics agency Torque Data, who used the classification to determine the key 19 seats and within those specific polling places ("Too Close to Call") that would decide the outcome of the 2013 Australian Federal Election. Using catchment area analysis of these key polling places they were then able to determine the types of people whose vote would have the most weight in these key areas. Torque Data were able to validate this process by conducting a small poll (n=1000) of only these types of voters and used its results to predicted a 3.8% swing to the Liberals and for them to win 90 seats (Actual result 3.6% swing 90 seats to Liberals) 2 months prior to the election.