Political cycle

The political cycle is the concept that some events in politics repeat in regular, predictable cycles.

The political cycle has several definitions. One popular definition of the political cycle explains cyclical changes in power that produce a cyclical swing between the two main parties of a two party system:

1. New government established.
2. Government is initially popular. Problems are blamed on the previous government and there is widespread relief resulting from a change from the previous unpopular government. In fact change is usually a key component of the new government's election campaign. The new government is more unified as its constituent groups are focused on the core issues which propelled them into power. Supporters have high hopes and expectations for the new government. This stage of the political cycle is described as the 'honeymoon period'.
3. Time passes. Long term problems are blamed on the current government. The government does not meet the expectations of disillusioned supporters and there is widespread disapproval as the government fails to fulfill its pre-election promises. There are increased allegations and instances of corruption and scandal. The government makes very unpopular major decisions such as taking the country to war or campaign of aggression against another country.
4. Unhappiness with the government reaches a critical point. There is widespread condemnation and often there are protests on the streets over various issues. The incumbent government is removed. In democracies this is achieved through elections. The main opposition party will base its election campaign upon 'Change' and promise to work for the people in CONTRAST to the incumbent government. Often the media will get behind the opposition. In authoritarian states, this is achieved through force, internal politics, or other methods.

(New government established. Political cycle repeats.)

The political cycle is much faster in democracies than in authoritarian states. Regular elections in a democracy means that a political cycle only takes a few years. In an authoritarian state, removing a government is very difficult. Political cycles can take decades or even centuries, e.g. the dynastic cycle of imperial China.

In U.S. politics, the political cycle is commonly cited to explain the results of the midterm elections. Midway through a presidential term, the president's political party usually loses seats in the Congress. However, the political cycle fails to explain why many presidents subsequently win re-election to a second term.

The Greek historian Polybius is noted for his description of a political cycle which he called "anacyclosis".