2008 wars of independence

The 2008 wars of independence are a series of speculated conflicts over independence of several unrecognized states arising from the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.

Background

Breakup of Yugoslavia

Collapse of the Soviet Union

Potential Balkan conflicts

Kosovo

Kosovo's incoming Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci said independence was "a matter of weeks" away in an interview published December 15th, 2007. Serbia has responded by passing a resolution threatening to cut ties with any nations that recognize Kosovo and possibly halt membership talks with the European Union and rule out membership in NATO. Serbia's president Boris Tadic also threatened to send the Serbian army to protect Kosovo Serbs if they came under attack.

In the event of a declaration of independence Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić said on November 23rd Serbia "should be prepared for the worst case scenario," however Defense Ministry plans for reacting to an independence declaration were not revealed. Dušan Proroković, Serbia's state secretary with the Kosovo Ministry, has said an action plan for Kosovo has been made that involves establishing Serbian institutions to administrate Kosovo. An office set up to serve as part of a Serbian parallel government has already been set up in Northern Mitrovica.

The Albanian National Army, according to a frontman for the group, is mobilizing its troops to send into the Serb majority regions in Northern Mitrovica and Northern Kosovo to protect Albanians once Kosovo declares its independence, though he would not reveal the size of the force. Reports say Northern Kosovo is already effectively part of Serbia with Serbian police sizing up everyone who cross the bridge over Ibar river into the Serb area of Mitrovica and posters of Serbian generals and politicians on several buildings.

Some fear a declaration of independence by Kosovo will be followed by a similar declaration by the Serbs in Northern Kosovo. If that happens, the Albanian National Army said they would "do everything to unify and protect our territories." To prevent a secession from Kosovo Germany has 500 troops and the U.S. has 200 troops stationed along the border. In Serbia, the Serbian Army has issued recruitment orders for more than 700 soldiers to fill posts in the Vranje, Leskovac and Bujanovac garrisons, all located in the south of the country.

If Kosovo is partitioned Prime Minister Agim Ceku has suggested Kosovo and Albanians in four other countries may want to unite with Albania. Nait Hasani, a member of the Kosovo government has also said Kosovo may try to unite with Albania. Hasani was quoted as saying to a Polish paper, "First there should be supervised independence as proposed by Ahtisaari. But it is known that Kosovo and Albania citizens are one nation who want to live in one state."

Srpska

According to a poll taken of Bosnian Serbs by the Banja Luka-based Partner agency 77% would support a referendum being called on Srpska's independence. The Prime Minister of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, citing popular demand, has suggested that a referendum on the Serb entity's independence could be held if Kosovo declares its independence. However, Dodik has denied accusations that there are already ballots being printed for such a referendum on independence.

Potential conflicts in the Former Soviet Union

Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Sergei Mironov, the chairmen of Russia's upper house of parliament said in December of 2007, "In case of the unilateral recognition of the independence of Kosovo, Russia will be entitled to change its approach to the so-called unrecognized republics in the post-soviet regions - South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie." He went on to say "In case of such a recognition of Kosovo, Russia will be able to say that it is free in its approach, including towards the so-called unrecognized republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie." Russia's lower house, the Duma, said they would consider recognitin of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in January 2008. Georgia, which claims South Ossetia and Abkhazia as its territory, has warned that such recognition would amount to a declaration of war.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stated on December 4th, 2007 he believes South Ossetia's status would be resolved in "if not weeks, then at the very most, months" should the January 5th elections be held normally. South Ossetia's president Eduard Kokoity has said he believes in 2008 South Ossetia will be unified with North Ossetia in Russia.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia's Deputy Parliament Speaker Vahan Hovhannisyan has said Kosovo's independence will ultimately impact Nagorno-Karabakh. Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan declared at the UN General Assembly session in October of 2007 that the Armenian side “does not understand and cannot accept the reverse logic that Kosovo was given independence and that another nation cannot obtain self-determination."

Azerbaijan has recently accused Nagorno-Karabakh of harboring the Kurdistan Worker's Party and threatened to carry out anti-terror operations in the breakaway republic. The PKK has also threatened to attack Azerbaijan should there be a an invasion of Northern Iraq by Turkey. Kamil Salimov an expert on combat with [...] stated the PKK's threats would do a favor to Azerbaijan because their "hands are tied with commitments on the peaceful settlement of Nagorno Garabagh conflict."

Potential Conflicts in Africa

Western Sahara

Western Sahara's Polisario Front threatened to resume war against Morocco if no progress is made in talks January. The group is already preparing for a "long war" seeing no possibility for Morocco to change its stance. A decision to launch renewed war with Morocco would be left up to their next Congress scheduled for June or July.

Potential Conflicts in Asia

Northern Cyprus

Ozdil Nami a senior Turkish Cypriot official told the Turkish Daily News, "When diplomatic efforts are exhausted other alternatives are put on the table. We clearly see this in Kosovo where diplomacy proved futile and other formulas are floating around. This will certainly have an impact on Cyprus." Nami suggests the resolution of Kosovo May Be applied to Northern Cyprus well. According to Nami, "Everyone sees 2008 as the last window of opportunity for a solution to the Cyprus problem." He claims Cyprus is being warned that "other alternatives could be on the agenda" if there is no resolution.

See Also

  • Yugoslav Wars
  • Kosovo status process
  • irredentism
  • Greater Albania