2006 Victorian election marginal seats

This article provides winning margin trends on the 20 most marginal seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the 2006 Victorian election to be held on 25 November 2006.

Winning marging trends in the table show how once strong seats, such as Sandringham for the Liberals and Richmond for the Australian Labor Party (ALP), can become marginal over time.

Seat margins do not always change because of dissatisfication with sitting members. New political players may emerge. Also, redistribution can change voting trends in the seat. For example, the once strong inner city Labor districts of Melbourne and Richmond are now marginal because of the unexpected success of the Victorian Greens at the 2002 election. Many safe Liberal seats, such as Bass and Mount Waverley, are now marginal because redistricting in 2002 increased the number of ALP voters in the seats.

With polls showing a trend towards the Liberals, they will be expected to retain a majority of their marginal seats and win some of those currently held by Labor. However, it is considered highly unlikely that the Liberals will win enough seats to win the election.

Marginal seats table

Marginal seats of the Legislative Assembly of the 55th Parliament of Victoria
District
	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Nepean^

	Evelyn

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Bass^

	South-West Coast

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Doncaster

	Hastings

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Box Hill

	Gembrook^

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Mornington

	Melbourne

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Benalla

	Kilsyth^

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Caulfield

	Ferntree Gully^

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Mount Waverley^

	Bulleen

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Bayswater

	Sandringham

	align="left" bgcolor="" \|Richmond

	Scoresby^
^ Seat created in 2002; results are for previous equivalent seat. * Won by independent; no two-party margin. N/A New seat; no electoral history. Source: Victorian Electoral Commission

Doncaster

The resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Victor Perton will make the tight contest for Doncaster even tighter.

Mount Waverley

Maxine Morand (ALP) was elected to Mount Waverley in 2002 in a surprise result, partly due to a flow of Green's preferences.

Box Hill

Shadow treasurer Robert Clark is running again for Box Hill, and is to face Robert Chong (ALP) again. If the strong Greens vote in 2002 (15.7%) is repeated, Greens preference flows are likely to be an important factor in determining the outcome. Peter Campbell is running for the Greens.

Scoresby

The Scoresby branch of the Liberal Party was stacked in an unsuccessful attempt to unseat Kim Wells, the sitting member and a shadow minister. Wells will run for the seat again.

Richmond

The contest in Richmond is likely to between Labor and the Greens, who are expected to outpoll the Liberals. If this happens, preference flows from the Liberals and other minor parties will be a key factor in determining who is elected. Gurm Sekhon is the Greens candidate for Richmond.

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